The method
Integrate these prompts within your project management workflow, specifically when defining tasks and dependencies. Use the first prompt to generate task duration estimates, and then refine those using the Monte Carlo simulation prompt to build a realistic schedule. Apply to projects with uncertain durations.
The prompts
Prompt 1
I am building a project schedule. For each task listed below, provide three duration estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic, in days. Explain your reasoning for each estimate. List of Tasks: [List of tasks from your project]. Please present in a table format with columns for Task, Optimistic Duration, Most Likely Duration, Pessimistic Duration, and Rationale.
Prompt 2
Using the task duration estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) generated in the previous step, simulate the project schedule 1000 times using a Monte Carlo simulation. Assume a triangular distribution for each task duration. Determine the probability of completing the project by [Target Completion Date]. Also, identify the critical path tasks that most frequently delay project completion. Provide a histogram of project completion times and a sensitivity analysis showing the impact of each task on the project's overall duration. The project tasks and duration estimation is: [Paste the list of tasks, and Optimistic, Most Likely, Pessimistic Duration for each Task]