The method
Apply this prompt when facing a critical decision with uncertain future outcomes. Input the decision context and potential influencing factors. The model will generate multiple plausible scenarios. This helps in robust decision making and risk mitigation.
The prompts
Prompt 1
We are considering launching a new product in the competitive tech market. Identify key uncertainties (e.g., competitor actions, technology adoption rates, regulatory changes, economic conditions) that could significantly impact the success of this product launch. For each uncertainty, describe at least three distinct potential outcomes or states. Construct three to four plausible, internally consistent scenarios, each reflecting a different combination of these potential outcomes. For each scenario, analyze the implications for our product launch, including potential market share, revenue, profitability, and risks. Based on this scenario analysis, recommend strategies to maximize our chances of success across all plausible scenarios. Highlight the key indicators to monitor that would signal which scenario is unfolding, allowing us to adapt our strategy accordingly. Also, please analyze the impact of each scenario on our current products.
Prompt 2
Our company is considering a major expansion into the international market. Several factors may affect our decision: political stability, economic growth, and cultural differences. Considering these uncertainties, create four different scenarios representing the best-case, worst-case, and two intermediate possibilities. For each scenario, provide a detailed analysis of the potential impacts on our sales, supply chain, and brand reputation. Propose corresponding strategic adaptations to thrive in each case. Include the risks of currency fluctuations. Outline specific actions, performance indicators, and contingency plans for each scenario to ensure adaptability and resilience in our international venture.